Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:
| Scenario | Percent orig. R0 | Percent increase from current R0 | Effective R0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.00% | -60.00% | 0.81 |
| 1 | 34.20% | -39.00% | 1.32 |
| 2 | 47.30% | -18.30% | 1.83 |
| 3 | 60.50% | 2.70% | 2.34 |
| 4 | 73.70% | 23.70% | 2.85 |
| 5 | 86.80% | 44.40% | 3.35 |
| 6 | 100.00% | 65.40% | 3.86 |
In the figures below:
A dashed line represents healthcare resource capacity limits.
Black dots depict COVID-19 data, with counts from outbreaks in nursing homes removed (for more details see Data).
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