Social Distancing Scenarios

Scenarios evaluated

Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:

• Effective \(R0\): The effective R0 this % decrease corresponds to
• % of original \(R0\): Percent of the original (pre-social-distancing) \(R0\) the effective \(R0\) this scenario represents
• % Increase from current: Percent increase from current (as of 2020-07-23) level of social distancing / contact rate

Scenario	Percent orig. R0	Percent increase from current R0	Effective R0
0	21.00%	-60.00%	0.81
1	34.20%	-39.00%	1.32
2	47.30%	-18.30%	1.83
3	60.50%	2.70%	2.34
4	73.70%	23.70%	2.85
5	86.80%	44.40%	3.35
6	100.00%	65.40%	3.86

Increase contact rate on 2020-07-23 by variable amounts

In the figures below:

A dashed line represents healthcare resource capacity limits.

Black dots depict COVID-19 data, with counts from outbreaks in nursing homes removed (for more details see Data).

Scenario 0

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 0.81
• % of original R0: 21
• % Increase from current: -60

Scenario 1

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 1.32
• % of original R0: 34.2
• % Increase from current: -39

Scenario 2

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 1.83
• % of original R0: 47.3
• % Increase from current: -18.3

Scenario 3

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 2.34
• % of original R0: 60.5
• % Increase from current: 2.7

Scenario 4

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 2.85
• % of original R0: 73.7
• % Increase from current: 23.7

Scenario 5

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 3.35
• % of original R0: 86.8
• % Increase from current: 44.4

Scenario 6

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 3.86
• % of original R0: 100
• % Increase from current: 65.4